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2 May 2024 03:43 USD/JPY - 156.05... Reuters reported many Bank of Japan board members agreed the country's long-term interest rates should be set by markets, with some saying the central bank should at some point slow the pace of bond buying, minutes of their March policy meeting showed on Thursday. 
 
At the March meeting, the BOJ ended eight years of negative interest rates and its bond yield control in a historical shift away from its prolonged radical stimulus programme. 
 
"With respect to yield curve control, many members expressed the view that it was appropriate for the Bank to change its framework. These members shared the view that long-term interest rates would be determined by financial markets in principle," the minutes showed. 
 
While one member said the BOJ should take time adjusting the pace of bond buying, others saw the need to breathe life back to a market made dormant by its huge presence, the minutes showed. 
 
30 Apr 2024 01:55 USD/MAJORS - Reuters reported China's manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in April, an official factory survey showed on Tuesday, suggesting some loss of momentum for the sprawling sector at the start of the second quarter. 
 
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction and just ahead of a median forecast of 50.3 in a Reuters poll. 
 
The data underlines the challenges facing policymakers even though solid first quarter GDP growth has reduced some of the urgency to ramp up stimulus measures. 
 
26 Apr 2024 06:37 USD/JPY - 156.06... Reuters news, BOJ Governor Ueda begins press conference and says : 
 
- economic outlook, risk overshoot may also be a reason for policy change 
- monetary policy is not aimed to control fx rates directly 
- if fx fluctuations affect underlying inflation, that could be a consideration for monetary policy 
- although main reason for FY2024 inflation outlook upgrade is higher crude price, weak yen had impact to some extent 
- likelihood of achieving 2% inflation target is gradually rising 
- reduction of jgb buying in future is in sight 
- not want to use reduction of jgb buying as a proactive monetary policy tool 
- will carry out appropriate short-term rate adjustment, taking effect of BOJ's JGB holding on long-term yield into - consideration 
- fx's impact on inflation rates is usually tentative 
- chance of prolonged weak yen is not zero 
- we can preemptively judge if weak yen affects underlying inflation, spring wage talks next year 
 
26 Apr 2024 03:36 USD/JPY - 156.05... Reuters reported the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Friday and issued fresh estimates projecting inflation to stay near its 2% target in the next three years, signalling its readiness to hike borrowing costs later this year. 
 
As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at a range of 0-0.1% in a unanimous vote. 
 
In fresh quarterly forecasts, the board projected inflation, as measured by an index stripping away the effect of fresh food and fuel costs, to hit 1.9% in the current fiscal year that began in April, followed by 1.9% in fiscal 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. 
 
In the previous forecast, the BOJ had projected inflation to hit 1.9% in both fiscal 2024 and 2025. 
 
The central bank ended eight years of negative rates and other remnants of its unorthodox policy last month, making a historic shift away from decades of massive monetary stimulus that was aimed at quashing deflation and revitalising growth. 
 
26 Apr 2024 03:24 USD/JPY - 155.61... Reuters news, BOJ leaves its interest rate unchanged at 0.0%-0.1%. 
26 Apr 2024 02:01 USD/JPY - 155.61... Reuters reported Japan is concerned about negative effects of the weak yen, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday, in a fresh warning against speculators as the currency has continued to slide to lows last seen more than three decades ago. 
 
"The weak yen has both positive and negative impacts (on the economy)," Suzuki told a press conference. But the finance minister said he is "more concerned about the negative effects right now," noting that measures to combat surging prices are key policy priorities for the government. 
 
While a weak yen boosts exports, it has become a headache for Japanese policymakers as it inflates the cost of living for households by pushing up import prices. 
 
Suzuki said he could not comment on specific policy measures on foreign exchange, but that authorities were closely watching currency moves and stood ready to take action. 
 
The yen JPY=EBS has sunk to 34-year low against a broadly firmer dollar, driven by wide U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials. The yield-induced downturn in the yen has gained renewed momentum on signs the Bank of Japan will go slow on raising its near-zero rates and expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely delay the start of its rate-cutting cycle. 
 
The BOJ is widely expected to keep policy settings steady following a two-day meeting that ends later in the day, leaving markets focused on any hints from governor Kazuo Ueda on how the weak yen could affect the next rate hike timing. 
 
24 Apr 2024 07:13 EUR/USD - 1.0688... Reuters then reported euro zone inflation could still prove stubborn so a European Central Bank rate cut in June will not necessarily be followed by further policy easing, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday. 
 
The ECB has essentially promised a rate cut at its next policy meeting on June 6 but policymakers are still debating the rate path beyond that and signals from the U.S Federal Reserve that its own easing could be delayed clouds the outlook further. 
 
Nagel offered a nod to the rate cut in June, which has not been challenged by any policymaker and has been described by some as a "fait accompli" but said he remained worried about price growth. 
 
"Such a step would not necessarily be followed by a series of rate cuts," Nagel said in a speech in Berlin. "Given the current uncertainty, we cannot pre-commit to a particular rate path." 
 
The comments are among the most cautious among policymakers, many of whom say that further policy easing was still more likely, even if they were not ready to commit to a particular schedule. 
 
Nagel said he was especially worried about services inflation, which is still driven by continued strong wage growth and has proven more persistent than goods inflation. 
 
"I am not fully convinced yet that inflation will actually return to target in a timely and sustained manner," Nagel added. 
 
24 Apr 2024 07:11 EUR/USD - 1.0690... Reuters news, ECB's Nagel says : 
 
- June rate cut not necessarily followed by a series of rate cuts 
- not fully convinced that inflation will actually return to target in a timely and sustained manner 
- services inflation remains high, driven by continued strong wage growth 
 
24 Apr 2024 01:58 AUD/USD - 0.6520... Reuters reported Australian consumer price inflation slowed by less than expected in the first quarter, while the progress in the core inflation stumbled, reinforcing market bets that an interest rate cut could be a long way out. 
 
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 1% in the first quarter, above market forecasts of 0.8%. 
 
The annual pace of CPI inflation, however, slowed to 3.6% from 4.1%, but again came in above forecasts for an easing to 3.5%. For March alone, the CPI rose 3.5% compared to the same month a year earlier, up from 3.4% in February. 
 
A closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, rose 1% in the first quarter, above forecasts of 0.8%. The annual pace slowed to 4%, from 4.2%. 
 
23 Apr 2024 07:34 EUR/USD - 1.0692... Reuters reported Germany's private sector unexpectedly returned to growth in April, driven by a solid rise in activity in the country's service sector, a preliminary survey showed on Tuesday. 
 
The HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 50.5 this month from 47.7 in March. That was above a Reuters poll forecast of 48.5 and the first reading above the 50 mark that indicates expansion in 10 months. 
 
"Factoring in the PMI numbers into our GDP Nowcast, we estimate that GDP may expand by 0.2% in the second quarter, following an estimated 0.1% growth in the first quarter," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. 
 
The index for the service sector rose to 53.3 this month from 50.1 in March, also its highest in 10 months and above a forecast of 50.5. 
 
23 Apr 2024 07:27 EUR/USD - 1.0666... Reuters reported the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in June but needs to be very cautious about subsequent moves and take into account signals from the U.S. Federal Reserves, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in a newspaper interview. 
 
"Assuming there are no surprises between now and then, as you say in French, it's a 'fait accompli'," French newspaper Le Monde quoted de Guindos as saying in Tuesday. "As for what happens afterwards, I'm inclined to be very cautious." 
 
Markets see two more rate cuts after June, most likely in September and December, but expectations have retreated in recent weeks on fears the Fed itself will delays cuts, possibly into next year. 
 
23 Apr 2024 07:25 EUR/USD - 1.0663... Reuters reported France's dominant services sector expanded in April for the first time in almost a year, helping offset continued weakness in manufacturing, according to a monthly survey. 
 
The HCOB flash purchasing managers index (PMI) for France's services sector, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 50.5 points in April from 48.3 in March, beating a Reuters poll forecast of 48.9 points. 
 
Any figure above 50 marks an expansion in activity, and April's reading was the first time France's services sector had breached that threshold since May 2023. 
 
By contrast, the manufacturing flash PMI fell to 44.9 points from 46.2 in March, below a Reuters' forecast of 46.9 points. 
 
23 Apr 2024 02:15 USD/JPY - 154.76... Reuters news, BoJ's Governor Ueda says : 
 
- annual wage negotiations have been, and always will be, among important economic variables we look at in setting policy 
- we decide on policy looking not just at wage talks, but various other economic variables 
- we decided to change policy in march because strong wage talk outcome came on top of fairly solid readings in other sectors of economy 
- whether we will set policy with same emphasis on wage talk outcome will depend on conditions at the time 
- hard to say beforehand how long BoJ should wait in gathering enough data to change policy 
- we would like to leave some scope for adjustment by not pre-committing to a certain policy too much 
- our basic stance is that we will look at moves in trend inflation to achieve our price goal, and take a data-dependent approach in setting policy 
 
23 Apr 2024 01:01 USD/JPY - 154.78... Reuters reported Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday the government is ready to respond appropriately to excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market without ruling out any options. 
 
Suzuki made the comment in a regular post-cabinet meeting news conference. 
 
19 Apr 2024 03:38 USD/MAJOR - Reuters reported explosions heard in Isfahan were a result of the activation of Iran's air defence systems, an Iranian official told Reuters on Friday, adding that no missile attack was carried out against Iran. 
 


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