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Intra-day Market Moving News
26 Oct 2021 06:57 EUR/GBP - 0.8424... Reuters then reported Thierry Breton, the French politician who is also the European Commission's internal market commissioner, said on Tuesday that Brexit was a "catastrophe" for the United Kingdom. 
 
"Look at what is happening on the supermarket shelves, look at what is happening at the petrol pumps, look at what is happening with the shortage of nurses and doctors, look at what is happening with the shortage of truck drivers, look at what is happening in the construction sector," Breton told BFM TV. 
 
"What is currently happening is a real drama," he added. 
 
26 Oct 2021 06:45 EUR/GBP - 0.8429... Reuters Brexit news, EU's Breton says : 
 
- Brexit is a catastrophe for UK 
- he does not believe Poland will leave EU 
- the Polish will never leave Europe 
 
26 Oct 2021 05:51 EUR/USD - 1.1604... Reuters reported German October export expectations fell to the worst value since February 2021 as raw material supply bottlenecks have been affecting the industry sector, the Ifo economic institute said on Tuesday. 
 
Export expectations fell to 13 points in October from 20.5 points a month before and the industries that are affected the most include electrical equipment, chemicals and car manufacturing, Ifo said. 
 
On the other hand, exports in the food and furniture industries are expected to remain constant, it added. 
 
26 Oct 2021 03:31 USD/JPY - 113.91.. Reuters just reported the Bank of Japan is set to maintain its massive stimulus programme on Thursday and slash this year's inflation forecast in a sign it has no intention to follow other central banks eyeing exits from crisis-mode policies. 
 
While rising raw material prices have pushed Japan's wholesale inflation to a 13-year high, consumer inflation is stuck around zero as weak domestic spending prevents firms from passing on higher costs to households.  
 
Anaemic inflation and Japan's still-fragile recovery will give the BOJ enough reason to maintain its target for short-term interest rates at -0.1% and that for 10-year bond yields around 0% at its two-day policy meeting ending on Thursday. 
 
In fresh quarterly projections, the BOJ is seen cutting this year's growth and inflation estimates, but sticking to its forecast of a moderate recovery, sources have told Reuters.  
 
26 Oct 2021 02:59 EUR/USD - 1.1601.. Euro is nursing losses in subdued Asian morning after Mon's decline fm 1.1664 (Asia), intra-day fall accelerated in European trading after soft German Ifo data n then downbeat Bundesbank monthly report which forecast German growth to slow sharply in final months of 2021, the single currency later tumbled to a 6-day low of 1.1591 shortly after NY open n staged a modest bounce to 1.1616 on short covering. 
 
As Mon's selloff below previous 1.1617 sup to 1.1591 signals recent corrective rise from Oct's 14-month trough at 1.1525 has ended last week at 1.1669 (Tue), downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1580 (61.8% r), break would add credence to this view n yield weakness twd 1.1525 ahead of Thur's ECB meeting where market is anticipating a dovish hold by the ECB. Offers are tipped at 1.1610/20 n more abv while some bids are noted at 1.1595/90 with stops below there, more stops are touted below 1.1570. 
 
There is no economic data from the euro area countries, we have ECB member Villeroy speaking in European session. 
 
26 Oct 2021 02:46 USD/JPY - 113.89.. Dlr maintains a steady to firm undertone in relatively quiet Asian morning after Mon's erratic rise from 113.47 (AUS) to 113.92 in NY morning due to broad-based usd's rebound. 
 
As dlr's rise from Fri's 1-week trough at 113.42 suggests 1st leg of correction fm Wed's fresh 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended, near term upside bias remains for gain to 114.15/20. Bids have been raised to 113.70-60 with stops below 113.40 while offers are tipped at 114.00/10 with stops abv 114.20. 
 
U.S. will release a slew of economic data, pls refer to our EI page for details, pay attention to consumer confidence at 13:00GMT. 
 
25 Oct 2021 22:25 EUR/GBP - 0.8435.. Reuters reported overnight British Brexit minister David Frost said on Monday that the European Union's proposals to solve the problem of trade involving Northern Ireland did not go far enough and significant gaps remained between the two sides. 
 
The two sides are in negotiations to find a common solution to issues with the part of a Brexit deal that governs trade between Britain, British province Northern Ireland, and EU member Ireland. 
 
Earlier this month, the European Union presented proposals to fix those issues.  
 
"The problem with them is that they don't go far enough. I'm not sure they would quite deliver the kind of ambitious, free ... trade between Britain and Northern Ireland we would want to see," Frost told a parliamentary committee. 
 
"It (the discussion between the two sides) has been quite constructive so far but the gaps between us remain significant," he said. 
 
25 Oct 2021 14:45 EUR/GBP - 0.8437... Reuters news, UK Brexit Minister Frost says : 
 
- problem with EU proposals on N. Ireland is that they don't go far enough  
- EU proposals wouldn't deliver the freeing up of trade we want to see 
- gaps between us remain significant 
 
25 Oct 2021 13:02 GBP/USD - 1.3746... Reuters news, BoE's Tenreyo says : 
 
- since Aug we have had large upside news for near-term inflation from energy prices, an effect which should fade quickly 
- some inflation drivers short-lived, monetary policy can do little to affect them 
- effects of supply chain disruption should also be temporary but speed of rotation back to normal is key uncertainty 
- balance of recent news on economy is unlikely to have a large effect on the amount of tightening required over the next few years 
- domestic cost pressures will depend on the evolution of the labor market now that the furlough scheme has ended 
 
25 Oct 2021 10:17 EUR/USD - 1.1621... Reuters earlier reported German economic growth is likely to slow sharply in the fourth quarter of the year as industry continues to suffer from supply shortages and demand for services wanes, the Bundesbank said in a regular monthly report on Monday. 
 
Europe's biggest economy boomed over the summer but unexpected supply-chain bottlenecks are now holding back its vast car manufacturing sector, while higher energy costs and persistent concerns over the coronavirus pandemic could hit consumer sentiment, economists have said. 
 
"Growth is likely to slow significantly in the current quarter," the Bundesbank said, adding that full-year growth is now likely to be "significantly" below its 3.7% prediction made in June. 
 
25 Oct 2021 10:03 GBP/USD - 1.3758... The British pound found renewed buying at 1.3750 in New Zealand and gained in tandem with euro to session highs at 1.3791. However, lack of follow-through buying triggered profit-taking and the pair fell sharply to 1.3743 in European morning on broad-based rebound in usd before stabilising. 
 
Cable's intra-day sharp retreat from 1.3791 suggests further choppy trading below last Tuesday's 1-month peak at 1.3834 would continue with downside bias, however, bids at 1.3710/20 should contain current fall and yield a much-needed rebound later. 
 
25 Oct 2021 08:34 EUR/USD - 1.1655... Reuters news, ECB's de Cos says : 
 
- supply chain problems, rising raw material prices affects negatively economic recovery pace 
- recent developments anticipate a significant downward economic outlook revision for 2021 
- high level of uncertainty over how households will spend excess savings during pandemic 
- likely we'll keep observing relatively high inflation rates in coming months 
- high commodity prices have transitory nature, though we cannot rule out price hike will persist over coming months 
- high energy prices may persist through winter as oil and gas storage is relatively low 
- general perception is that ECB's monetary policy will keep expansive tone 'during dilated time' 
 
25 Oct 2021 08:07 EUR/USD - 1.1658... Reuters news, Ifo says : 
 
- supply chain problems are causing trouble for companies, production capacities are falling 
- in manufacturing sector, business sentiment has fallen again, same with services and trade 
- German economy is facing an uncomfortable autumn 
- problems in industry are still virulent, procurement issues are leading to sinking capacity 
- supply chain problems are impacting stores 
- bottlenecks in industry have not tightened further in October 
- German GDP to grow by around 0.5% in Q4 
 
25 Oct 2021 08:06 EUR/USD - 1.1656... Reuters reported German business morale fell for the fourth month running in October as supply bottlenecks continued to hold back factory output in Europe's largest economy, a survey showed on Monday. 
 
The Ifo institute said its business climate index fell to 97.7 from an upwardly revised 98.9 in September. A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a October reading of 97.9. 
 
25 Oct 2021 03:15 EUR/USD - 1.1652.. Euro rises in active Asian morning partly on broad-based euro buying vs usd, yen and gbp. Despite Fri's intra-day brief fall in NY morning from 1.1655 to 1.1623 following Fed Powell's bond taper comments, as the single currency has shrugged off this mildly hawkish remark n penetrated 1.1655, suggesting re-test of last Tue's near 3-week high at 1.1669 would be seen. 
 
Therefore, buying euro on dips for resumption of corrective upmove fm Oct's fresh 14-month trough at 1.1525 is favoured, reckon res at 1.1703 may cap upside. Order board is pretty thin on Mon with some bids touted at 1.1640-30 with stops below 1.1615 whilst offers are tipped at 1.1665/70 with stops abv there. 
 
On the data front, pay attention to key German Ifo business climate, current conditions n expectations at 08:00GMT, then later Buba monthly report. We also have ECB member de Cos speaking at 08:00GMT. 
 


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