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23 May 2024 14:35 EUR/USD - 1.0835... Reuters reported wage growth data published on Thursday, that came in a bit above expectations due to developments specific to Germany, should not be over-interpreted, ECB governing council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. 
 
Negotiated pay growth in the euro zone picked up slightly in the first quarter of 2024, European Central Bank figures showed earlier on Thursday. 
 
23 May 2024 14:07 EUR/USD - 1.0837... Reuters reported euro zone consumer confidence rose by 0.4 points in May from the April number, figures released on Thursday showed. 
 
The European Commission said a flash estimate showed euro zone consumer morale improved to -14.3 this month from -14.7 in April. 
 
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise to -14.2. 
 
In the European Union as a whole, consumer sentiment rose by 0.5 points to -13.2. 
 
23 May 2024 13:56 USD/MAJORS... Reuters reported U.S. business activity accelerated to the highest level in just over two years in May, but manufacturers reported a surge in prices for a range of inputs, suggesting that goods inflation could pick up in the months ahead. 
 
S&P Global said on Thursday that its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, jumped to 54.4 this month. That was the highest level since April 2022 and followed a final reading of 51.3 in April. 
 
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index little changed at 51.1. The increase was driven by the services sector, with the flash PMI rising to 54.8 from 51.3 in April. The manufacturing flash PMI inched up to 50.9 from 50.0. 
 
At face value, the jump in activity suggested that economic growth picked up half-way through the second quarter. 
 
The greenback rises on this data. 
 
23 May 2024 13:04 USD/MAJORS... Reuters reported the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to underlying strength in the labor market that should continue to support the economy. 
 
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended May 18, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 220,000 claims in the latest week. 
 
23 May 2024 08:32 GBP/USD - 1.2735... Reuters reported growth across British businesses has cooled noticeably this month and by more than any economist polled by Reuters had predicted, a survey showed on Thursday, in an early blow for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's election campaign. 
 
The S&P Global UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index for the services and manufacturing sectors fell to 52.8 in May from 54.1 in April, undercutting the median poll forecast for a much more modest dip to 54.0. Readings above 50 denote an expansion in activity. 
 
The dominant services sector reported the weakest growth in six months, more than outweighing a recovery in factories which had their best month in almost two years. 
 
Overall, the PMI pointed to a weakening of momentum in Britain's economy after a strong start to 2024, when it exited a shallow recession. 
 
The services PMI fell to 52.9 in May from April's 11-month high of 55.0 - far short of the Reuters poll consensus of 54.7. 
 
The manufacturing PMI rose to its highest since July 2022 at 51.3, up from 49.1 in April, helped by rising output and new orders. 
 
23 May 2024 08:12 EUR/USD - 1.0839... Reuters reported euro zone business activity has expanded at its fastest pace in a year this month, supported by buoyant demand for services, while the manufacturing sector showed signs of approaching a recovery, a preliminary survey showed on Thursday. 
 
HCOB's preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.3 this month from April's 51.7, beating expectations in a Reuters poll for a more modest lift to 52.0. 
 
May marked its third month above the 50 level separating growth from contraction. 
 
Overall prices charged rose at their slowest pace since November and the output prices index dropped to 52.5 from 53.7, potentially opening the door to policy easing from the European Central Bank. 
 
ECB policymakers are widely expected to reduce interest rates when it meets early next month. 
 
23 May 2024 07:31 EUR/USD - 1.0825... Reuters reported German private sector activity expanded in May for the second consecutive month, driven by strong activity in services, a preliminary survey showed on Thursday. 
 
The HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.2 in May from 50.6 in April. That was above a Reuters poll forecast of 51.0. 
 
The composite PMI index tracks the services and manufacturing sectors that together account for more than two-thirds of the euro zone's largest economy. A reading above 50 signals growth in activity. 
 
The index for the service sector rose to 53.9 in May from 53.2 in April, also its highest in 11 months and above a forecast of 53.5. 
 
Although manufacturing remained in contraction, the manufacturing PMI index rose to 45.4 from 42.5 in the previous month, above the forecast of 43.1 in a Reuters poll and at a 4-month high. 
 
23 May 2024 07:25 EUR/USD - 1.0815... Reuters reported France's private sector unexpectedly shrank in May after expanding in April, with the dominant services industry joining manufacturing in reporting a contraction in activity, a preliminary survey showed on Thursday. 
 
The HCOB flash purchasing managers index for the services sector, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 49.4 from 51.3 the month before, well below the 51.6 forecast in a Reuters poll. 
 
Any figure below 50 marks a contraction, while above 50 shows an expansion in activity. 
 
The flash manufacturing PMI rose to 46.7 points, better than a Reuters poll forecast for 45.8 and above April's final manufacturing PMI of 45.3. 
 
The flash composite PMI, which comprises the two main sectors, fell to 49.1 points from 50.5 in April, and worse than a Reuters poll forecast for 50.9. 
 
22 May 2024 06:13 GBP/USD - 1.2749... Reuters news, UK PM Sunak says : 
 
- today marks a major moment for the economy, with inflation back to normal 
 
22 May 2024 06:05 GBP/USD - 1.2742... Reuters reported British consumer prices rose by 2.3% in annual terms in April, slowing from a 3.2% increase in March, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday. 
 
The Bank of England and economists polled by Reuters had forecast an annual rate of 2.1%. 
 
Sterling rallies on CPI data. 
 
22 May 2024 03:18 NZD/USD - 0.6129... RBNZ Governor Orr says : 
 
- will take time for domestic inflation to decline 
- economy has lower potential growth rate, unsure if that is temporary 
- have limited upside room for inflation surprises 
- OCR track is a central projection not an absolute prediction 
- we had a real consideration on raising rates at this meeting 
- lot of high domestic inflation affected by near-term factors 
- insurance, rates, rent costs less sensitive to interest rates 
 
22 May 2024 02:04 NZD/USD - 0.6146... Reuters news, RBNZ Minutes states : 
 
- members agreed they remain confident that monetary policy is restricting demand 
- a further decline in capacity pressure is expected, supporting a continued decline in inflation 
- committee agreed that interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period to ensure annual headline CPI inflation returns to the 1 to 3 percent target range 
- committee noted that annual headline CPI inflation was expected to return to the target band in the December quarter of this year 
- domestic inflation has fallen more slowly than expected and headline consumers price index (CPI) inflation remains above the committee's target band 
- committee also agreed that interest rates may have to remain at a restrictive level for longer than anticipated in the February monetary policy statement to ensure the inflation target is met 
- the committee discussed the possibility of increasing the OCR at this meeting 
 
22 May 2024 02:01 NZD/USD - 0.6142... Reuters news, RBNZ says : 
 
- monetary policy needs to be restricted 
- restrictive monetary policy has reduced capacity pressures in the New Zealand economy and lowered consumer price inflation 
- annual consumer price inflation is expected to return to within the committee's 1 to 3 percent target range by the end of 2024. 
- welcome decline in inflation in part reflects lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand 
- components of domestic services inflation persists 
- wage growth and domestic spending are easing 
- weaker capacity pressures and an easing labour market are reducing domestic inflation 
 
22 May 2024 02:00 NZD/USD - 0.6125... Reuters reported New Zealand's Reserve Bank OCR unchanged at 5.50% 
 
NZD rises after release of interest rates decision. 
 
21 May 2024 13:28 USD/MAJORS... Reuters news, Fed's Waller says : 
 
- probability of a recession seems to have disappeared 
- 10year treasury rate has risen; that's where you see potential effects on tightening 
- disconnect about how people think about speed of rate hikes versus expected rate cuts 
- trying to figure out actual lags is so difficult, makes us a lot more cautious now 
 


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