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| Intra-day Market Moving News |
| 12 Feb 2026 |
08:08 |
USD/JPY - 152.88... LSEG reported the Bank of Japan could raise key interest rates again as early as March and deliver up to three hikes this year in light of persistent inflation and yen weakness, Mizuho Financial Group's markets chief told Reuters on Thursday.
With the yen having weakened and inflation continuing to run above the BOJ's target, "we can expect as many as three rate hikes this year, and it's entirely possible that the next one could come as early as March or April," Kenya Koshimizu, co-head of the lender's global markets division, said.
Koshimizu said there are many positive factors right now, including 3-4% nominal economic growth and a clearer policy strategy by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
"The BOJ will adjust monetary policy in line with these improvements," he added.
As concerns over global trade frictions eased, the BOJ raised its policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75% in December and has signalled its readiness for further rate hikes.
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| 12 Feb 2026 |
08:07 |
EUR/USD - 1.1875... LSEG reported the French economy is likely to grow between 0.2% and 0.3% in the first quarter, Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday, which is in-line with the bank's 1% annual growth expectation.
"French economic growth is resilient, but not sufficient," Villeroy said in an interview with France's Radio Classique.
The central bank chief, who also sits on the European Central Bank council, will stand down from his post in June.
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| 12 Feb 2026 |
08:06 |
GBP/USD - 1.3636... LSEG reported Britain's economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025, official figures showed on Thursday.
Economists polled by Reuters, as well as the Bank of England, had forecast 0.2% growth in gross domestic product for the October-December period compared with the previous three months.
In December alone, the economy grew by 0.1%, the Office for National Statistics said, as expected in a the Reuters poll.
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| 11 Feb 2026 |
16:19 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG then reported unexpectedly strong job growth in January should undercut concerns about cyclical weakness in the job market, Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid said on Wednesday.
The addition of 130,000 payroll jobs last month "was good news," said Schmid, who noted that he dissented against rate cuts at the end of last year because he felt slow job growth was related more to shifting demographics and immigration policies rather than weak demand for workers, a point buttressed by renewed employment growth.
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| 11 Feb 2026 |
15:42 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Schmid says :
- jobs report was good news
- do not believe labor market last year was showing cyclical weakness
- will probably need elements of AI to account for lower workforce growth due to aging, low birthrates, low immigration
- breakeven job growth rate is likely around 40k or 50k per month
- will miss Powell when he is no longer chair; he is a committed and principled American
- have no concerns about nomination of Warsh as chair
- Congress and executive branch may want to stoke the economy, Fed needs to maintain balance between jobs and inflation
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| 11 Feb 2026 |
15:11 |
Continues from previous update...
The Trump administration and Fed chief nominee Kevin Warsh have cited recent strong productivity data, with an outlook for that to continue as AI tools spread through the economy, as justification for lowering interest rates. If the economy can produce more with fewer resources, it could allow stronger growth without inflation, letting the Fed worry less about price pressures in a strong growth environment.
But Schmid said recent productivity gains could be from sources as mundane as workers staying in jobs longer than they did during the high-churn years around the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and just becoming better at what they do.
"My contacts broadly agree that we are now in a low-hire, low-fire, low-quit labor market. One positive from this lack of churn is higher productivity," said Schmid, who is not a voting member of the Fed's policy committee this year. "It is not clear if productivity will continue to grow at this pace."
The Fed held interest rates steady at its policy meeting late last month and is expected to keep them on hold at least until its June 16-17 meeting. The release on Wednesday of a stronger-than-expected jobs reportfor January reinforced that view.
New U.S. inflation data is due to be released on Friday.
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| 11 Feb 2026 |
15:10 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported the U.S. central bank needs to keep tight monetary policy in place for now amid continued strong economic growth, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid said on Wednesday, cautioning that it was too early to bank on rising productivity as a remedy for still-elevated inflation.
"With inflation still running hot, it appears that demand is outpacing supply across much of the economy," Schmid said in comments prepared for delivery to an economic forum in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
While it is possible that rising productivity or the spread of artificial intelligence could boost the economy's potential and allow "a non-inflationary, supply-driven growth cycle," Schmid said his view is that "we are not there yet" and therefore need to leave interest rates high enough to discourage some spending and investment.
"Further rate cuts risk allowing high inflation to persist even longer," Schmid said, particularly at a time when he noted that it seems the economy may continue to grow above trend.
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| 11 Feb 2026 |
13:51 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported U.S. job growth accelerated in January and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, signs of labor market stability that could give the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged for some time while policymakers monitor inflation.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 48,000 rise in December, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls advancing by 70,000 jobs. Estimates ranged from a loss of 10,000 jobs to a gain of 135,000 positions.
The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in December.
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| 11 Feb 2026 |
13:30 |
USD/MAJORS... The US dollar rallies broadly after robust US January non-farm payrolls +130k versus 70k expected.
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| 10 Feb 2026 |
18:03 |
Continues from previous update...
"I anticipate we'll see progress on inflation this year," Logan said, noting that she expects tariffs' upward push on prices to begin to fade, for housing services inflation to continue to slow amid reduced rental demand, and for balance in the labor market to ease pressures on non-housing services inflation. And there are tentative signs of progress, she said, including a decline in short-term inflation expectations and businesses expecting costs and prices to moderate this year.
At the same time she ticked off a litany of her inflation worries: some tariff effects are still ahead; fiscal policy and "buoyant" financial conditions look set to provide a tailwind to economic activity; and deregulation and new technologies could exert upward pressure on prices.
"Any number of economic or financial developments could require a change in the course of policy or a fundamental rethink of the outlook and the balance of risks," she said.
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| 10 Feb 2026 |
18:02 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said on Tuesday she's "cautiously optimistic" that the Fed's current policy rate setting will get inflation headed to its 2% goal while keeping the job market stable, and that economic data in coming months will show if that hope bears out.
"If so, this would tell me that our current policy stance is appropriate and no further rate cuts are needed to achieve our dual mandate goals," Logan said in remarks prepared for delivery in Austin, Texas. If instead inflation falls but the labor market cools materially, "cutting rates again could become appropriate. But right now, I am more worried about inflation remaining stubbornly high."
Logan, who voted in the 10-2 majority at the Fed's January meeting to hold the policy rate in its current 3.50%-3.75% range, said she feels that after last year's three interest-rate cuts, downside risks to the labor market "appear to have meaningfully dissipated." But they also created additional risk on inflation, she said.
And with short-term borrowing costs now squarely in the range of estimates for a "neutral" policy setting that neither brakes nor stimulates the economy, they are doing little to restrain an economy that has rebounded strongly and inflation that for nearly five years has run above the Fed's target.
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| 10 Feb 2026 |
17:52 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said Tuesday the banking system is on a solid footing as she watched borrowing levels in the Treasury market.
"The banking system looks pretty good," Hammack said in an appearance in Columbus, Ohio. She also said high levels of government borrowing are driving hedge funds to themselves borrow to invest in that market, and that situation is something "I'm continuing to watch closely."
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| 10 Feb 2026 |
17:44 |
Continues form previous update...
The dollar's weakness has stemmed from multiple factors: expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts, tariff uncertainty, policy volatility including threats to Fed independence, and rising fiscal deficits, all of which have eroded investor confidence in U.S. economic stability.
On Tuesday, the dollar traded mostly lower against major currencies after data indicating slower than expected growth in consumer spending in December, and as the yen strengthened again following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election victory.
U.S. Commerce Department data on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December, putting pressure on consumer spending - which constitutes two-thirds of the economy. Data-producing agencies are still catching up on releases after delays caused by last year's government shutdown.
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| 10 Feb 2026 |
17:43 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday that he views the weaker dollar as being at a "more natural" level to promote U.S. exports and expand economic growth.
Lutnick, asked about recent dollar weakness at a U.S. Senate Appropriations subcommittee, said that for many years the dollar was manipulated higher by other countries to export more to the U.S., but President Donald Trump was changing trade dynamics.
"So the idea is, the dollar, where it is now, is just more natural. We are exporting more, and that's why our GDP has grown so much, right?" Lutnick said.
He added that he thinks fourth quarter 2025 GDP will exceed 5% and could top 6% in the first quarter of 2026.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the administration's traditional spokesperson on the dollar's value, has repeatedly insisted that the U.S. has a "strong dollar policy," and that the economic steps it is taking to make the U.S. attractive to foreign investment supports that.
The dollar hit a four-year low in late January after Trump said the greenback's weakness was "great."
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| 10 Feb 2026 |
17:25 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Hammack says :
- regulators don't have great insight into fast growing private credit
- the U.S. government is on unsustainable fiscal path
- watching for build up of leverage in treasury market
- central bank independence is critical and delivers better outcomes
- Fed is independent and accountable
- many banks still not set up to use discount window, that makes sense for some firms
- Fed wants to make discount window easier to use
- worries inflation could become entrenched in economy, expectations so far contained
- critically important to get 2% inflation
- important to get 2% inflation before changing rates again
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