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Market Moving News
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| Intra-day Market Moving News |
| 20 Dec 2024 |
07:05 |
GBP/USD - 1.2507... LSEG reported British retail sales rose by a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in November, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday.
A Reuters poll of economists had forecast a monthly increase of 0.5% in sales volumes from October.
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| 20 Dec 2024 |
03:38 |
USD/JPY - 157.08... LSEG news, Japan Top Currency Diplomat Mimura says :
- am gravely concerned about forex moves
- will take appropriate action against excessive forex moves
- alarmed including over speculative moves
- believe not appropriate for me to comment further on forex
- won't comment on BoJ's communication given its independence
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| 19 Dec 2024 |
12:07 |
GBP/USD - 1.2602... LSEG reported the Bank of England kept its main interest rate unchanged at 4.75% on Thursday but policymakers became more divided about whether rate cuts were needed to tackle a slowing economy.
Three of the BoE's nine-person Monetary Policy Committee - Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and external members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor - voted for a quarter-point rate cut to 4.5%.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected only one MPC member to vote for a cut.
But BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank needed to stick to its existing "gradual approach" to cutting rates.
"With the heightened uncertainty in the economy we can't commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year," he said.
Economists polled by Reuters last week forecast the BoE would cut rates four times next year, but financial markets have scaled back their expectations sharply in response to faster than expected wage growth and only see up to two cuts.
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| 19 Dec 2024 |
12:06 |
GBP/USD - 1.2601... LSEG news, BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 4.75%, as expected
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| 19 Dec 2024 |
07:23 |
USD/JPY - 156.46... LSEG news, BoJ's Governor Ueda says :
- hard to say if January outlook report, various info are sufficient 'one more notch'
- there is of course risk of falling behind the curve while waiting
- but we will consider the risks if we were to decide to skip rate hike
- there is always a risk of sudden inflation (not yield) surge if easy conditions prolong
- no comment on short-term market moves, closely watching asset price trends including stock prices
- at this point can't really predict what wages trends will be in January
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| 19 Dec 2024 |
02:52 |
USD/JPY - 154.85... LSEG news, BoJ leaves rate unchanged at 0.25%
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| 18 Dec 2024 |
20:00 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed Chairman Powell continues to say :
- we have to continue to have restrictive policy to get inflation to 2%
- I('m confident in the story of why inflation has come down, why that portends well
- goods inflation has returned to pre-pandemic range overall
- story of why inflation should be coming down is still intact
- job market cooler by 'so many measures' now
- inflation is still unwinding from large shocks in 2021 and 2022
- I'm confident we are on path to 2% inflation
- we do think labour market is still cooling, watching it closely
- labour market not cooling in a way that raises concerns
- we are in a new phase in the process
- we are still meaningfully restrictive, closer to neutral, appropriate to move cautiously
- we've done a lot to support economic activity
- from now, we are in a place where we need to see progress on inflation
- we moved quickly to get to here, going forward we will move slower
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| 18 Dec 2024 |
19:56 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed Chairman Powell continues to say :
- that puts us in place to make a careful assessment of appropriate policy response to tariffs
- there are many factors for how much tariffs will even go into consumer inflation
- premature to make any conclusion on impact of tariffs, don't know what countries, what size, how long
- don't know that 2018 is much of a guide to what will happen this time
- we are at the stage of thinking through questions, not getting to definitive answers for some time
- core inflation coming down to 2.5% next year, as in projections, would be significant progress
- we also have to think about the labour market, mindful it is gradually cooling
- 'extend and timing' language in statement shows we are at a point where we can slow pace of rate cuts
- we will be looking for further progress on inflation to make those cuts
- we expect significant policy changes, we need to see what they are and the effects to get a clearer picture
- US economy is performing very very well
- no reason to think a downturn is anymore likely than usual
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| 18 Dec 2024 |
19:42 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed Chairman Powell continues to say :
- we think economy in a real good place and policy too
- what's driving slower rate-cut path is stronger economic growth and lower unemployment
- also driving slower rate-cutting path is higher inflation this year and next year
- also closer to neutral rate, another reason to be cautious
- some people did take a very preliminary step and incorporated conditional effects of coming policies in their projections
- some policymakers incorporated forecasts of new policies in their forecasts
- when path is uncertain, you go a little slower
- there is a range of approaches on the committee
- higher inflation is probably the biggest factor for new projections
- we want to see progress on inflation as we think about further cuts
- we will want to see further progress on inflation, solid labor market
- committee is discussing ways in which tariffs can drive inflation, we've done a good bit of work on that
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| 18 Dec 2024 |
19:36 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed Chairman Powell continues to say :
- policy is well positioned to deal with risks
- can ease more quickly if labour market weakens unexpectedly or inflation falls more quickly
- today was a closer call but the right call
- decided it was the right call as best decision to foster achievement of goals
- risks are two-sided
- trying to steer between those 2 risks
- downside risks to labour market have diminished, but still cooling
- don't think we need further cooling to get inflation down to 2%
- job creation below the level that would hold jobless rate constant
- labour market quite gradually cooling
- inflation broadly on track
- housing services steadily coming down
- 'extent and timing' language shows we are at or near point of slowing rate cuts
- slower pace of rate cuts reflects expectation of higher inflation
- risks and uncertainty around inflation we see as higher
- cuts we make next year will react to data
- significantly closer to neutral, still restrictive
- as long as labour market, economy solid, can be cautious as we consider further cuts
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| 18 Dec 2024 |
19:30 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed Chairman Powell begins press conference and says :
- squarely focused on two goals
- economy strong
- labour market remains solid
- inflation much closer to 2% goal
- consumer spending resilient, investment in equipment has strengthened
- housing activity has been weak
- improving supply has supported strong US economic performance
- wage growth has eased
- labour market not a source of inflation pressures
- core PCE prices probably rose 2.8% in Nov
- inflation expectations remain well anchored
- risks to achieving goals roughly in balance
- attentive to risks on both sides
- today lowered range, have been moving toward a more neutral setting
- policy stance is now significantly less restrictive
- we can be more cautious going forward
- reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economy, employment
- not on a preset course
- policymaker projections for policy rate are higher for next year, sustainably towards 2%
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| 18 Dec 2024 |
19:28 |
Continues from previous update...
That is half a percentage point less in policy easing next year than officials anticipated as of September, with Fed projections of inflation for the first year of the new Trump administration jumping from 2.1% in their prior projections to 2.5% in the current ones - well above the central bank's 2% target.
Slower progress on inflation, which is not seen returning to the 2% target until 2027, translates into a slower pace of rate cuts and a slightly higher ending point of 3.1%, also hit in 2027, versus the prior "terminal" rate of 2.9% seen as of September.
Fed officials also boosted their estimate of the long-run neutral rate of interest to 3%.
The reduction in the benchmark policy rate to the 4.25%-4.50% range was opposed by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who preferred to leave the policy rate unchanged.
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| 18 Dec 2024 |
19:27 |
USD/MAJORS.. LSEG then reported the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday and signaled it will slow the pace at which borrowing costs fall any further given a relatively stable unemployment rate and little recent improvement in inflation.
"Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace" with an unemployment rate that "remains low" and inflation that "remains somewhat elevated," the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in its latest policy statement.
"In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range ... the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," it said in new language that sets up a likely pause to rate cuts beginning at the Jan. 28-29 meeting.
U.S. central bankers now project they will make just two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025.
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| 18 Dec 2024 |
19:00 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, the Federal Reserve cuts key overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25-4.50% range; new projections show 50 bps of cuts in 2025
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| 18 Dec 2024 |
09:04 |
EUR/USD - 1.0493... LSGE news, ECB's Lane says :
- it is prudent to maintain agility on a meeting-by-meeting basis and not pre-commit to any particular rate path
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