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| Intra-day Market Moving News |
| 6 Oct 2025 |
05:28 |
USD/JPY - 150.35... LSEG reported the yen tumbled the most against the U.S. dollar in five months on Monday after Sanae Takaichi won the LDP leadership election at the weekend, setting the country on course for more expansionary fiscal policy and complicating the task facing the Bank of Japan.
The yen sank 1.9% to 150.35 yen on the dollar, its biggest one-day slide since May 12, wiping out the gains it made in the past two months.
Against the euro, the Japanese currency fell 1.7% to 176.19 yen, its weakest since the creation of the European single currency.
"The coming days will be important to gauge her policies and from other potential members in her likely cabinet," Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC, wrote in a research note. "While we see room for the JPY to recover, there are limits given the domestic policy uncertainty."
A former economic security and internal affairs minister with an expansionary fiscal agenda for the world's fourth-largest economy, Takaichi's victory puts her on course to become the country's first female prime minister.
Her expansionist economic policy has reduced bets that the central bank will hike interest rates this month.
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| 6 Oct 2025 |
05:28 |
Continues from previous update...
Takaichi's win "will likely lead to some weakness in the yen," said Mahjabeen Zaman, head of FX Research at ANZ in Sydney. "There's a lot of political and fiscal uncertainty in the near term and maybe the BOJ may be cautious, despite the data supporting a little bit more of a hawkish stance," she said on a podcast.
Long-dated Japanese government bonds sold off, with the 40-year JGB yield jumping 15.2 basis points to 3.538%. The yen swaps market on Monday now indicates a 41% likelihood of a rate hike by December, down from 68% on Friday.
"We're in the eye of the storm," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne, as traders seek clues on how aggressively Takaichi will seek to ease fiscal policy.
"If markets get a whiff that she's going to do Abenomics-lite, it could keep bond buyers out of the market," he said. "She does need to tread a careful path if she goes down that road. She'll be very cognizant of the UK's example."
With many markets in Asia closed for holidays and liquidity thin in the region, the dollar index was last flat at 98.083, stabilising after recent losses.
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| 1 Oct 2025 |
12:17 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, ADP national employment report shows U.S. employment decreased by 32,000 private sector jobs in Sept.
The greenback falls on data.
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| 30 Sep 2025 |
04:34 |
AUD/USD - 0.6594... LSEG news, RBA continues to say :
- uncertainty in the global economy remains elevated
- monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia
- there is a little more clarity on the scope and scale of US tariffs and policy responses in other countries, suggesting that more extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided
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| 30 Sep 2025 |
04:31 |
AUD/USD - 0.6594... LSEG news, RBA says :
- policy decision was unanimous
- the decline in underlying inflation has slowed
- board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome
- board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions
- both headline and trimmed mean inflation were within the 2-4 per cent range in the June quarter
- board decided that it was appropriate to maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting
- while partial and volatile, suggest that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected at the time of the August
- financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year and this seems to be having some impact, but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier cash rate reductions
- domestic economic activity is recovering but the outlook remains uncertain
- board judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve
- board remains alert to the heightened level of uncertainty about the outlook
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| 30 Sep 2025 |
04:30 |
AUD/USD - 0.6589... LSEG news, Reserve Bank of Australia, at its meeting today, the board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent.
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| 26 Sep 2025 |
12:39 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported U.S. consumer spending increased slightly more than expected in August, keeping the economy on solid ground as the third quarter progressed, while inflation continued to rise at a measured pace.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.5% advance in July, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending increasing 0.5% after a previously reported 0.5% gain in July.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.3% in August after gaining 0.2% in July, the BEA said. In the 12 months through August, the PCE Price Index advanced 2.7% after climbing 2.6% in July.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE Price Index rose 0.2% last month after increasing 0.2% in July. In the 12 months through August, the so-called core inflation increased 2.9% after rising 2.9% in July.
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| 26 Sep 2025 |
11:36 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, in an interview with BBG television, Fed's Barkin says :
- not much confidence in any inflation forecast at this point
- companies want to pass costs on, but consumers are trading down and shopping carefully
- inflation is moving in the wrong direction, but so is unemployment
- productivity and customer pushback is helping with inflation
- expect limited increases in unemployment rate
- the uncertainty around the economy is starting to lift, but new announcements will be a setback to the sectors that are covered by them
- Fed is going to have to adjust its stance as it learns more
- the neutral rate is not that useful as an operational tool in making policy
- what is more helpful is how the economy is reacting in real time
- not sure if Fed will change the policy rate targets
- have to be attentive to how little the Fed knows right now about how inflation and unemployment will evolve
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| 25 Sep 2025 |
07:30 |
USD/CHF - 0.7957... LSEG news, Swiss National Bank leaves SNB policy rate unchanged at 0.00%.
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| 19 Sep 2025 |
03:51 |
UDS/JPY - 147.63... LSEG news, BoJ says :
- Japan's economy recovering moderately, although some weakness has been seen
- decides to start selling its ETF, J-REIT holdings
- exports, output remain more or less flat as a trend
- capital expenditure on moderate increasing trend
- private consumption has been resilient
- inflation expectations have risen moderately
- Japan's economic growth likely to slow due to impact of trade policies on global growth, but re-accelerate
- Japan's underlying inflation to stagnate due to slowdown in economic growth, but gradually accelerate thereafter
- decision on ETF, J-REIT made by unanimous vote
- decides to sell ETFs, J-REITs in markets in accordance with fundamental principles of their disposal
- BoJ's principles on ETF, J-REITs selling include avoiding inducing destabilising impact on markets
- scale of ETFs, J-REITs sales will generally be equivalent to that for stocks purchased from financial institutions
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| 19 Sep 2025 |
03:47 |
USD/JPY - 147.77... LSEG news, BoJ maintains short-term interest rate target at 0.5%.
BoJ makes rate decision by 7-2 vote.
BoJ board member Takata, Tamura dissented to rate decision.
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| 18 Sep 2025 |
12:38 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the labor market has softened as both demand for and supply of workers have diminished.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended September 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The decline partially reversed a surge in the prior week, which had pushed claims to levels last seen in October 2021.
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| 18 Sep 2025 |
11:01 |
Continues from previous update...
The BoE said that over the next year, sales would be split 40:40:20 between short-, medium- and long-dated gilts on an initial purchase price basis.
Long-dated gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 at the start of this month.
Policymakers also voted 7-2 to keep interest rates at 4% after last month's quarter-point cut, in line with expectation in a Reuters poll, after Monetary Policy Committee members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor kept up their call for lower rates.
The BoE maintained its forecast that inflation would peak at 4% this month and slowly fall back to its 2% target by the second quarter of 2027, and nudged up its growth forecast for the third quarter to 0.4% from 0.3%.
"Although we expect inflation to return to our 2% target, we're not out of the woods yet so any future cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully," Bailey said.
Before Thursday's decision, markets priced in only around a one-in-three chance of a further rate cut this year.
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| 18 Sep 2025 |
11:00 |
GBP/USD - 1.3648... LSEG reported the Bank of England kept rates unchanged on Thursday and said it was slowing the pace of its quantitative tightening programme and skewing sales away from long-dated gilts to minimise the impact on turbulent bond markets.
Policymakers voted 7-2 to slow the annual pace at which it unloads the gilts which it purchased from 2009 and 2021 to 70 billion pounds from 100 billion pounds, broadly in line with a Reuters poll median forecast for it to be cut to 67.5 billion.
"The new target means the MPC can continue to reduce the size of the Bank's balance sheet in line with its monetary policy objectives while continuing to minimise the impact of gilt market conditions," Governor Andrew Bailey said.
The slowdown is the first since the BoE started in 2022 to unwind its gilt holdings, which followed 875 billion pounds of purchases between 2009 and 2021 to boost the economy.
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill voted to maintain the pace at 100 billion pounds - viewing the impact on markets as small - while MPC member Catherine Mann called for a faster reduction of 62 billion pounds.
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| 17 Sep 2025 |
19:18 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Chairman Powell continues to say :
- usually think that moderate long-term interest rates will result from stable inflation, maximum employment
- I don't think we should incorporate that in somehow, separately from dual mandate
- default rates are not at a level that are terribly concerning, but do watch
- Fed is focused on price stability, max employment goals; separately monitor financial stability, which is a mixed picture
- banks, households in good shape
- don't see elevated structural vulnerabilities in financial system
- besides the outlier of U. Mich. survey, longer-term inflation expectations have been rock solid
- don't see market participants factoring in risk to Fed independence
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