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Market Moving News
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| Intra-day Market Moving News |
| 17 Sep 2025 |
18:40 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Chairman Powell continues to say :
- possible tariffs are a reason for some slowing in labour market
- increase in goods prices accounts for most of inflation increase this year
- expect tariff-driven price increases to continue this year and next
- labour market changes are mostly from immigration changes
- demand for labour id down a little more sharply than supply of labour
- over this year, policy has been at a restrictive level
- can no longer say labour market is solid
- risks are moving toward equality
- change in balance of risks suggests need to move in direction of neutral
- no widespread support for 50 bps cut today
- don't feel need to move quickly on rates
- we were right to wait
- could think of today's cut as a risk management cut
- a very different picture of risks to labour market since last Fed meeting
- labour market is cooling off, tells you it's time to take that into account in policy
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| 17 Sep 2025 |
18:30 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Chairman Powell begins post-meeting press conference and says :
- inflation has risen recently, remains somewhat elevated
- moderation in GDP growth largely reflects consumer spending slowdown
- payroll job gains have slowed significantly, reflecting lower immigration, lower participation
- labour demand has softened
- job gains running below breakeven rate
- inflation has eased from mid-2022 highs, but somewhat elevated
total PCE prices likely rose 2.7% in August from year ago, core PCE rose 2.9%
- inflation for goods has picked up, disinflation for services continuing
- beyond next year, most inflation-expectation measures consistent with 2% goal
- changes to policy evolve, effects on economy uncertain
- overall effect of tariffs on inflation remain to be seen
- risk of persistent inflation from tariffs needs to be managed and assessed
- balance of risks has shifted
- well-positioned to respond in timely way
- individual forecasts are not a plan, policy not on preset course
- we welcomed new committee member
- committee united in pursuing dual mandate goals
- strongly committed to independence of Fed
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| 17 Sep 2025 |
18:02 |
Continues from previous update...
"The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen," the Fed said in its policy statement. "Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up."
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT) to elaborate on the latest statement and economic outlook.
New economic projections showed policymakers at the median still see inflation ending this year at 3%, well above the central bank's 2% target, a projection unchanged from the Fed's last set of forecasts published in June. The projection for unemployment was also unchanged at 4.5% and economic growth slightly higher at 1.6% versus 1.4%.
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| 17 Sep 2025 |
18:01 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday and indicated it will steadily lower borrowing costs for the rest of this year, as policymakers responded to concerns about weakness in the job market in a move that won support from most of President Donald Trump's central bank appointees.
Only new Governor Stephen Miran, who joined the Fed on Tuesday and is on leave as the head of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, dissented in favor of a half-percentage-point cut.
The rate cut, along with projections showing two more quarter-percentage-point reductions are anticipated at the remaining two policy meetings this year, indicate Fed officials have begun to downplay the risk that the administration's voluble trade policies will stoke persistent inflation, and are now more concerned about weakening growth and the likelihood of rising unemployment.
The cut, the first move by the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee since December, moves the policy rate to the 4.00%-4.25% range.
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| 17 Sep 2025 |
18:00 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Federal Reserve cuts key overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25% range, says downside risks to employment have risen.
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| 11 Sep 2025 |
13:02 |
EUR/USD - 1.1721... LSEG news, ECB's Lagarde continues to say :
- disinflationary process is over
- we are still in a good place
- inflation is where we want it to be
- domestic econ showing resilience
- not on predetermined path
- decision unanimous
- trade uncertainty has diminished
- all governments need to operate on basis of EU fiscal framework
- minimal deviation from target will not necessarily justify movement
- euro area sovereign bond markets are orderly, functioning with smooth liquidity
- QT proceeding smoothly
- integrity of data we use is very high
- TPI was not discussed at all today
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| 11 Sep 2025 |
12:50 |
EUR/USD - 1.1694... LSEG news, ECB's Lagarde begins press conference and says :
- growth shows resilience of domestic demand
- GDP data reflects Q1 frontloading
- investment should be underpinned by govt spending
- higher tariffs, stronger euro, competition to hold growth back
- headwinds on growth should fade next year
- essential to follow up on recommendations of Draghi report
- indicators of underlying inflation consistent with our 2% target
- forward looking indicators suggest that wage growth will moderate further
- moderating wage grwoth to keep lid on domestic price pressures
- core inflation to drop on declining labour cost pressures, stronger euro
- risks to economic growth more balanced
- outlook for inflation is more uncertain than usual
- stronger euro could bring inflation down more than expected
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| 11 Sep 2025 |
12:36 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased sharply last week, consistent with a material softening in labor market conditions.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 263,000 for the week ended September 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 235,000 claims for the latest week.
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| 11 Sep 2025 |
12:34 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in August and the annual increase in inflation was the largest in seven months, but the data is not expected to prevent a much-anticipated interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week against the backdrop of labor market weakness.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% last month after increasing 0.2% in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Thursday. In the 12 months through August, the CPI advanced 2.9%, the largest increase since January, after climbing 2.7% in July.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3% and increase 2.9% on a year-over-year basis.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI 0.3% after gaining 0.3% in July. In the 12 months through August, the so-called core CPI inflation increased 3.1%. That followed a year-on-year rise of 3.1% in July.
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| 11 Sep 2025 |
12:20 |
EUR/USD - 1.1675... LSEG reported the European Central Bank left borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday and raised its growth forecast for this year on the back of a more resilient economy.
The ECB left the rate it pays on bank deposits at 2% for the second meeting in a row, after halving it in the space of a year as inflation fell towards its 2% target.
The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro refrained from providing any indication about the future path for interest rates.
"The Governing Council...will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance," the ECB said in a press release.
On top of the announced U.S. trade tariffs, the ECB has to reckon with a weakening labour market in the United States - the biggest customer for euro zone companies - and political and debt troubles in France, its second-biggest member economy.
Policymakers told Reuters before the meeting that conversations about a further rate cut were likely to resume in the autumn if U.S. import tariffs take a toll on euro zone growth.
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| 11 Sep 2025 |
12:15 |
EUR/USD - 1.1682... LSEG news, ECB says :
- leaves interest rate on deposit facility unchanged at 2.00% (Reuters poll 2.00%)
- leaves benchmark refinancing rate unchanged at 2.15% (Reuters poll 2.15%)
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| 8 Sep 2025 |
03:50 |
USD/JPY - 148.21... LSEG earlier reported Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned on Sunday, ushering in a potentially lengthy period of policy uncertainty at a shaky moment for the world's fourth-largest economy.
Having just ironed out final details of a trade deal with the United States to lower President Donald Trump's punishing tariffs, Ishiba, 68, told a press conference he must take responsibility for a series of bruising election losses.
Since coming to power less than a year ago, the unlikely premier has overseen his ruling coalition lose its majorities in elections for both houses of parliament amid voter anger over rising living costs.
He instructed his Liberal Democratic Party - which has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war period - to hold an emergency leadership race, adding he would continue his duties until his successor was elected.
JPY falls broadly on this weekend news.
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| 12 Aug 2025 |
04:39 |
AUD/USD - 0.6510... LSEG reported Australia's central bank on Tuesday cut its main cash rate by a quarter point to a two-year low of 3.60%, citing a slowdown in inflation and a looser labour market, though it was cautious on the prospect of further easing.
Wrapping up a two-day policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia board said data suggested core inflation would moderate to around the middle of its 2% to 3% target band even assuming a gradual easing in policy.
Markets had been fully priced for a cut, having been wrong-footed in July when the central bank held steady, given inflation had slowed as desired in the second quarter while unemployment had moved higher.
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| 12 Aug 2025 |
04:38 |
AUD/USD - 0.6507... The currency pair softens following RBA interest rate cut.
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| 12 Aug 2025 |
04:31 |
AUD/USD - 0.6505... LSEG news, RBA says :
- inflation has continued to moderate
- the outlook remains uncertain
- policy decision unanimous
- maintaining price stability and full employment is the priority
- underlying inflation will continue to moderate to around the midpoint of the 2-3 per cent range, with the the cash rate assumed to follow a gradual easing path
- there is a little more clarity on the cope and scale of US tariffs and policy responses in other countries, suggesting that more extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided
- board remains cautious about the outlook
- monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia
- labour market conditions remain a little tight
- labour market conditions have eased further in recent months
- cut due to underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2-3 per cent range and labour market conditions easing slightly
- there are also uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of recent monetary policy easing and how firms' pricing decisions
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