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8 Feb 2023 00:24 GBP/USD - 1.2050... Reuters reported Britain will dodge recession this year but its people will face the after-effects of a severe fall in living standards caused by surging inflation, which will leave millions struggling to pay their bills, academic researchers forecast on Wednesday. 
 
Britain's National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) cut its forecast for gross domestic product growth this year to 0.2% from 0.7% in its last forecast in November, and sees growth of 1.0% in 2024, down from 1.7%. 
 
NIESR Director Jagjit Chadha said the forecasts painted "an incredibly depressing picture", particularly for living standards which are set to stagnate this year after falling sharply last year due to the surge in energy prices. 
 
One in four British households would be unable to pay for food and energy without using up savings, borrowing or seeking other help in the 2023/24 financial year, up from one in five during the current year, NIESR said. 
 
7 Feb 2023 17:58 USD/MAJORS - Reuters reported Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday very strong jobs data released last week simply affirms that the central bank has some way to go on raising rates. 
 
When it comes to Friday's release of the January jobs data, "we didn't expect it to be this strong," Powell said. 
 
While declining to say whether knowing about the vigor of the data would have affected last week's 25 basis point rate rise, Powell said the data "shows you why this will be a process that takes a significant period of time," when it comes to tightening monetary policy. 
 
7 Feb 2023 14:44 EUR/USD - 1.0687... Reuters reported the European Central Bank needs more, big interest rate increases to bring inflation back to 2% but it should proceed one step at a time given the prevailing uncertainty, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel told a German daily. 
 
"From where I stand today we need further, significant rate hikes," the president of the Bundesbank told Boersen-Zeitung. "But I find it right that we proceed step by step." 
 
7 Feb 2023 13:28 USD/MAJORS - Reuters reported the strength of the U.S. labor market makes it much less likely that the economy will fall into a recession, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday. 
 
"I'm not forecasting a recession. And here's the thing, the job market is stronger than I expected, which means it's less likely that we're going to be in a recession," Kashkari said in an interview with broadcaster CNN. 
 
"But it also means it's less likely that inflation is simply going to fall back down to 2% the way we need it to and so it's a little bit of a mixed signal." 
 
7 Feb 2023 10:13 EUR/USD 1.0715... Reuters news, ECB's Villeroy says : 
 
- the better economic environment makes our monetary task easier 
 
7 Feb 2023 03:41 AUD/USD - 0.6933... Reuters reported Australia's central bank raised its cash rate 25 basis points to a decade-high of 3.35% on Tuesday and reiterated that further increases would be needed, while dropping previous guidance that they were not on a pre-set path. 
 
Wrapping up its February policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said core inflation had been higher than expected and higher rates would be needed to ensure that inflation returns to its target of 2-3%. 
 
Markets had expected a quarter-point move, with some risk of a bigger rise given recent inflation data had surprised on the high side. This was the ninth hike since last May, lifting rates by a total of 325 basis points. 
 
7 Feb 2023 03:30 AUD/USD - 0.6940.. Reuters news, RBA raised its cash rate by 0.25% to 3.35% as widely expected.  
 
7 Feb 2023 01:09 USD/JPY - 132.41... Reuters news, Japan FinMin Suzuki says : 
 
- important for FX to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals 
- FX intervention in October had certain effects 
 
6 Feb 2023 17:44 GBP/USD - 1.2024... Reuters reported Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Monday that the British central bank was prepared to do more to get inflation back to target after it suggested last week that interest rates were approaching their peak. 
 
"I do have high degree of confidence (about getting inflation to target) because we know what we're going to do. We've done a lot to achieve it, we're prepared to do more as necessary to ensure that we achieve it sustainably," Pill said in an online Q&A session. 
 
"And I don't think anyone is changing their mind or getting cold feet or anything like that." 
 
6 Feb 2023 10:16 EUR/USD - 1.0772... Reuters reported euro zone retail sales fell roughly in line with expectations in December, underlining the weakness in consumer demand at the end of the year amid high inflation, data from the European Union's statistics office Eurostat showed. 
 
Eurostat said retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro in December fell 2.7% month-on-month for a 2.8% year-on-year decline. Economists polled by Reuters had expected retail sales to fall 2.5% on the month and 2.7% year-on-year. 
 
6 Feb 2023 09:34 GBP/USD - 1.2037... Reuters reported Britain's construction sector had its worst month in almost three years in January as rising borrowing costs hit house-building hard but builders turned more confident about the outlook for 2023, a survey showed on Monday. 
 
The S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the construction sector dropped to 48.4 from 48.8 in December, hitting its lowest level since May 2020. 
 
Britain's construction sector lost its momentum during the second half of 2022 in the face of higher interest rates. The Bank of England last week raised borrowing costs to 4%, their highest since 2008, in an attempt to tackle the surge in inflation. 
 
6 Feb 2023 08:34 EUR/USD - 1.0785... Reuters news, ECB's Holzmann says : 
 
- the risk of over-tightening policy seems dwarfed by the risk of doing too little 
- policy must continue to show "teeth" until a credible convergence to inflation target 
 
6 Feb 2023 03:20 USD/JPY - 131.84... Reuters then reported Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday defended his decade-long stimulus programme, saying there was "no better way" to aim at sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target. 
 
"With our monetary easing steps, we sought to stimulate economic activity and tighten the labour market so that prices and wages would rise more," Kuroda told paraliament. 
 
"This was a necessary approach and one that is shared by other central banks," he said. 
 
6 Feb 2023 03:09 USD/JPY - 131.87... Reuters news, BOJ's Governor Kuroda says : 
 
- BOJ will seek to achieve 2% inflation in stable, sustainable manner, while keeping an eye out on side-effects 
- Japan has yet to achieve situation where inflation stably, sustainably achieve 2% target accompanied by wage growth 
- there was no other monetary policy means BOJ could have taken to achieve 2% inflation in stable, sustained fashion 
 
6 Feb 2023 02:37 USD/JPY - 132.02... Reuters news, Japan Deputy Cabinet Secretary Isozaki says : 
 
- no truth to report BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya sounded out for next BOJ Governor 
 


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