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| Intra-day Market Moving News |
| 11 Jul 2025 |
03:36 |
Continues from previous update...
Trump complained in his letter about what he referred to as the flow of fentanyl from Canada as well as the country's tariff- and non-tariff trade barriers that hurt U.S. dairy farmers and others. He said the trade deficit was a threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Canadian officials say a miniscule amount of fentanyl originates from Canada but they have taken measures to strengthen the border.
"If Canada works with me to stop the flow of Fentanyl, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter," Trump wrote.
Carney's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The prime minister said last month that he and Trump had agreed to wrap up a new economic and security deal within 30 days.
Trump has broadened his trade war in recent days, setting new tariffs on a number of countries, including allies Japan and South Korea, along with a 50% tariff on copper.
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| 11 Jul 2025 |
03:35 |
USD/MAJORS... The USD surges following U.S. President Trump's tariffs announcement.
LSEG earlier reported U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States would impose a 35% tariff on imports from Canada next month and planned to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most other trading partners.
In a letter released on his social media platform, Trump told Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney the new rate would go into effect on August 1 and would go up if Canada retaliated.
The 35% tariff is an increase from the current 25% rate that Trump had assigned to Canada and is a blow to Carney, who was seeking to agree a trade pact with Washington.
An exclusion for goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade was expected to stay in place, and 10% tariffs on energy and fertilizer were also not set to change, though Trump had not made a final decision on those issues, an administration official said.
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| 10 Jul 2025 |
14:33 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Musalem continues to say :
- hope next framework is more robust to normal economic circumstances, while acknowledging risks of zero lower bound
- so far it appears that reserves remain abundant, there will be signals if reserves become more scarce
- if the Fed could not pay interest on reserves, it could be disruptive
- not paying interest on reserves would require more active open market operations to control liquidity
- paying interest on reserves allows the Fed to inject liquidity if needed without sacrificing interest rate control
- dollar swap lines for foreign central banks help with financial stability for U.S. markets
- not hearing from firms that there are supply chain disruptions
- so far the tariff impact on prices appears to be mild, though it is early in the process
- expect tariff impact to begin to show up in data this summer, may be able to form a picture of the full impact later in the year
- stablecoins are an interesting innovation in payments, it is good there will be a regulatory framework
- countries that have more independent cent4ral banks deliver better inflation and employment outcomes
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| 10 Jul 2025 |
14:19 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Musalem continues to say :
- firms will likely face margin pressures in the future
- there are reasons to be mindful of downside risk to labour market, including drop in hours worked and compensation
- monetary policy is well positioned to respond to labour market weakness as long as expectations are anchored
- do not think the U.S. is in a stagflationary environment, inflation and unemployment would have to be much higher
- financial conditions are currently supportive of economic activity
- not observing a tremendous about of restrictiveness due to monetary policy
- the banking system is well-capitalized and liquid
- U.S. fiscal trajectory is not sustainable and in the future could become a financial stability problem
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| 10 Jul 2025 |
14:04 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Musalem says :
- the economy is in a good place, with labour market at or near full employment
- there is some upside risk to inflation
- there have been some positive trends on inflation in recent months, but the outlook is for it to increase going forward due to tariffs
- it is too soon to tell if tariffs will have a one-off or a more persistent impact on inflation
- inflation expectations have been anchored
- dollar weakening could add to inflation
- could late this year or early next year for impact of tariffs to be fully felt
- critical for the Fed to keep long-term inflation expectations anchored
- anchored expectations are what allows the Fed to be responsive to changes in the labour market
- labour supply seems to be declining, which may be due to slowed immigration or other factors
- hiring trends have been softer than usual
- firms are still reluctant to lay off employees
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| 10 Jul 2025 |
12:41 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly felllast week, suggesting employers may be holding on to workers despite other indications of a cooling labor market.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended July 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 235,000 claims for the latest week. The data included last week's July Fourth holiday and claims tend to be volatile around public holidays.
Economists and U.S. central bankers have generally viewed the labor market as solid, if weakening somewhat. This is a view reinforced by last week's monthly jobs report that showed the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.1%, though largely because the workforce shrank, and a bigger-than-expected gain of 147,000 jobs, though highly concentrated in just a few sectors.
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| 10 Jul 2025 |
12:30 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, US jobless claims fell to 227,000 Jul 5 week (consensus 235,000) from 232,000 prior week (previous 233,000).
US continued claims rose to 1.965 million Jun 28 week (consensus 1.974 million) from 1.955 million prior week (previous 1.964 million).
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| 10 Jul 2025 |
02:23 |
Continues from previous update...
"Copper is necessary for Semiconductors, Aircraft, Ships, Ammunition, Data Centers, Lithium-ion Batteries, Radar Systems, Missile Defense Systems, and even, Hypersonic Weapons, of which we are building many," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
The U.S. depends on imports for nearly half of its refined copper needs, and brought in 810,000 metric tons in 2024, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Countries set to be most affected by the tariff are Chile, Canada and Mexico, which were the top suppliers to the U.S. of refined copper, copper alloys and copper products in 2024, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
Chile, Canada and Peru have told the administration that imports from their countries do not threaten U.S. interests and should not face tariffs. All three have free trade deals with the U.S.
The steep tariff is designed to encourage production in the U.S. More than two-thirds of the country's copper is mined in Arizona, where the development of a massive new mine planned by Rio Tinto and BHP has been stalled for more than a decade.
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| 10 Jul 2025 |
02:22 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG earlier reported U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday a new 50% tariff on copper to start on August 1 in a bid to promote domestic development of an industry critical to defense, electronics and automobiles.
The move marks the latest in a string of sectoral tariffs Trump has placed on industries such as steel and aluminum that economists warn will drive up costs for American consumers.
Trump signaled on Tuesday that he was imposing fresh tariffs on copper, sending U.S. Comex copper futures to record highs.
The White House ordered a Section 232 investigation into copper imports in February, using a law that gives the president authority to impose higher tariffs based on national security grounds.
Trump said on Wednesday that he received a "robust" national security assessment that concluded tariffs were necessary to protect U.S. production of a commodity that is critical across an array of industries.
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| 9 Jul 2025 |
18:02 |
Continues from previous update...
Fed officials "agreed ... it remained appropriate to take a careful approach in adjusting monetary policy," according to the minutes.
The comments in the minutes were reflected in the interest rate projections issued after the two-day meeting, with the median rate outlook pointing to two quarter-percentage-point cuts by the end of 2025. Investors expect an initial cut at the Fed's meeting in September and a second one in December.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have since said they felt rates could fall as soon as the July 29-30 meeting, but a recent stronger-than-expected jobs report has led investors to put the odds of an imminent rate cut at close to zero.
Powell's term as Fed chief lasts until May 15.
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| 9 Jul 2025 |
18:01 |
Continues from previous update...
"Participants generally agreed that, with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy moderately or modestly restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity," the minutes said.
While many policymakers agreed rate cuts might be appropriate later this year, there was broad division about the outlook.
"Some participants ... saw the risk of elevated inflation as remaining more prominent," the minutes said. Seven policymakers in projections issued after the June meeting anticipated no rate cuts this year.
"A few participants saw risks to the labor market as having become predominant," the minutes stated.
But officials seemed, in large part, wary to change monetary policy while so much remained up in the air about the final tariff rates that Trump intends to impose and how businesses and consumers will respond.
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| 9 Jul 2025 |
18:00 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported only "a couple" of officials at the Federal Reserve's June 17-18 meeting said they felt interest rates could fall as soon as this month, with most policymakers remaining worried to some degree about the inflationary pressure they expect to come from President Donald Trump's use of import taxes to reshape global trade.
Trump has demanded immediate cuts, and called for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to resign, but the minutes showed only narrow support for a reduction in borrowing costs among the Fed's 19 policymakers.
"Most participants" at the Fed's meeting did anticipate rate cuts would be appropriate later this year, with any price shock from tariffs expected to be "temporary or modest," said the minutes, which were released on Wednesday.
The document covered the deliberations at the U.S. central bank's Federal Open Market Committee meeting last month, at which officials unanimously voted to keep the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range set last December.
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| 9 Jul 2025 |
16:07 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday issued a round of tariff letters to six countries, including Algeria, Brunei, Iraq, Libya, Moldova and the Philippines.
The letters call for tariffs of 30% on Algeria, 25% on Brunei, 30% on Iraq, 30% on Libya, 25% on Moldova and 20% on the Philippines.
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| 9 Jul 2025 |
14:01 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, U.S. President Trump says :
- our Fed rate is at least 3 points too high
LSEG then reported U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday called on the Federal Reserve to lower the federal benchmark interest rate by at least 3 percentage points, renewing his call for the U.S. central bank to lower rates to help reduce the cost to service the nation's debt.
"Our Fed Rate is AT LEAST 3 Points too high. "Too Late" is costing the U.S. 360 Billion Dollars a Point, PER YEAR, in refinancing costs. No Inflation, COMPANIES POURING INTO AMERICA. "The hottest Country in the World!" LOWER THE RATE!!!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.
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| 9 Jul 2025 |
13:33 |
EUR/USD - 1.1715... LSEG reported European Commission has made good progress on a framework trade agreement with United States and a deal may even be possible in the coming days, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said on Wednesday.
Sefcovic told EU lawmakers he hoped that EU negotiators could finalise their work soon, with additional time now from the extension of a U.S. deadline to August 1 from July 9.
"I hope to reach a satisfactory conclusion, potentially even in the coming days," Sefcovic said.
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